The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

The first hurricane of the 2025 season is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 storm and turn north just before the U.S. east coast next week.

A southward shift in Erin’s track has led to an increase in risk for the northern Caribbean Islands, though a direct hit in the United States is unlikely.