Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

The stock market is an ever-changing place. In fact, it’s changing every second of every day as prices go up and down, and new factors impact the trajectory of the market. It’s important for investors ...

A while back one of my students, “Frank,” a real smarty-pants, started babbling about something called Bayes’ theorem. He wrote a long, dense paper about the theorem’s revelatory power, which had ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

Over the years, many writers have implied that statistics can provide almost any result that is convenient at the time. Of course, honest practitioners use statistics in an attempt to quantify the ...

First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that ...

Although Bayes's theorem demands a prior that is a probability distribution on the parameter space, the calculus associated with Bayes's theorem sometimes generates sensible procedures from improper ...

[url=http://arstechnica.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=24649285#p24649285:3j46jg05 said: l8gravely[/url]":3j46jg05]The article was nice, but boy would I have appreciated ...

Our eyes, gestures, and tone bring us together in a more profound way than words alone. It’s why we look hopefully toward the return of in-person, face-to-face connection. In science, progress is ...