Financial analysts are fond of using “success probability” models but they’re based on past data with a life that is otherwise perfect.

Zhou began his quest for the solution to this problem with a simple question posed to his introductory probability class for engineering students. In the class, he asked: “What is the probability of ...

The course covers the topics in probability models, random variables, expected values, important discrete and continuous distributions, limit theorems, and basic problems of statistical inference: ...

Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies ...

joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): I guess this is where I point and laugh at win probability models, again. neil: Ya gotta watch out for that 0.1 percent.

Models to predict the spread of lung cancer may be complicated but they have value when developed and used correctly, says Dr Holley.

That means half the time, the “classic” win probability model matched to the “adjusted” win probability model to within three percentage points or closer. But that also means that half the time, the ...

A prediction model from the global financial services firm JPMorgan Chase, analyzed by Bloomberg, suggests that the probability of an economic downturn has grown to 31 percent from 17 percent at ...

Deirdre Bloome, Shannon Ang, Is the Effect Larger in Group A or B? It Depends, Demography, Vol. 59, No. 4 (August 2022), pp. 1459-1488 ...