Just over half of AI researchers recently surveyed considered a five percent chance of humans being driven to extinction.

The team said the likelihood of human extinction within the next year is as high as one in 15,000 – which is higher than the chance that you will die in a road accident in the same time frame.

The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will ...

Can we learn from the Moon? So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.

We can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history.

His work explores the history of ideas about human extinction and existential risk. His most recent book is " X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction," from which this article is adapted.

The concept of an existential risk certainly includes extinction, but it also includes risks that could permanently destroy our potential for desirable human development.

Can we learn from the Moon? So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.